According to the situation and outlook of chemical industry by the end of 2020 issued by the American Chemical Council (ACC), after responding to the supply interruption, demand decline and income decrease caused by the global covid-19 pandemic, the chemical production in the United States is recovering momentum. Chemical Industry Global Recession, read review..
With the steady recovery starting in the third quarter and the improvement of many key chemical consumption industries, the outlook is positive.
At the beginning of 2020, American Chemistry faces many adverse factors, including the global manufacturing slowdown, trade protectionism policy and the uncertainty of the upcoming U.S. election. As the commercial impact of the pandemic began to show, chemical production declined. Car production has fallen sharply with supply chain production.
The real estate market has shown strong growth due to the transformation of the remote working mode and the record low interest rate. Most other end-use sectors have declined, partially offset by the demand for chemicals used to manufacture goods used to respond to the epidemic.
“American chemistry plays a crucial role in global combat against covid-19, providing input for personal protective equipment, disinfection and health products, medical supplies and equipment, protective barriers and plastic packaging,” said Kevin swift, chief economist and co-author of outlook In March, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security listed the chemical industry and its staff as “critical infrastructure.”.
In 2020, the performance of chemical industry is mixed. Plastic resin is the only sector to achieve positive growth because it plays a role in solutions related to new crown viruses. Sales of other basic chemicals have fallen, especially synthetic rubber, the key raw material for tire manufacturing. Demand for specialty chemicals has declined in almost all functional and market segments. ACC expects a considerable rebound in 2021.
“The post pandemic outlook is broad growth of chemicals with solid fundamentals,” said Martha Moore, senior director of policy analysis and economics at ACC and co-author of outlook “Growing customer demand, stable export markets, and competitive advantages associated with domestic shale gas and natural gas liquefaction (NGLS) supply are all factors for sustained growth in the US chemical sector.”
In 2020, the total chemical production excluding drugs will decrease by 3.6%, and it is expected to increase by 3.9% in 2021 and 2.7% in 2022. The production of basic chemicals decreased by 1.3% in 2020, with an increase of 5.0% in 2021 and 3.2% in 2022.
In 2020, the U.S. GDP will fall by 3.8 per cent, down from 2.3 per cent in 2019. As the global economy recovers from a recession triggered by the pandemic, US economic growth is expected to rebound 3.7 per cent in 2021 and 3.2 per cent in 2022, largely due to consumer spending growth. In 2020, industrial production fell by 6.9 per cent, with almost all sectors falling. Industrial output is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2021 and 3.5% in 2022. Almost all industries are expected to grow, with the largest growth being automotive, aerospace, home appliances, steel, oil refining, plastics and rubber products.
Automobiles, buildings and buildings are important end-use markets for chemistry. The light vehicle production in 2015-19 was very strong, with an average of nearly 17million vehicles per year. The average sales volume is expected to be 14.4 million vehicles in 2020. The V-recovery has begun and sales are expected to increase to 16million in 2021. The market is generally expected to see further improvement in sales over the next few years and to maintain a high level.
There is a general expectation that housing will increase by 1.34 million units this year as many families move to areas with low population density, and then moderate progress will be made by 2025. It helps to build a family, as is employment and income growth in the long run. Low mortgage rates provide some incentives. However, the shortage of labor and available resources limits the pace of economic growth. The construction volume of new houses will rise to 1.38 million in 2021, and 1.36 million in 2022.
Novel coronavirus pneumonia will be reduced in 2020, and the total trade volume will take one to two years to recover to the level of new crown pneumonia. By 2020, total trade in chemical products is expected to fall 7 per cent to $22.8 billion, and then resume to $240billion in 2021. Exports will fall 9 per cent to $124billion in 2020 and will increase to $134.5 billion in 2021. Imports will fall 5 per cent to $96.8 billion in 2020 and then resume to $105.5 billion in 2021. The prospect of chemical trade is related to the shape of the recovery of manufacturing, trade policies and the process of covid-19. Potential changes in the global supply chain may affect international trade levels over the long term.
